Image by Sebastian Flegl from Pixabay
Originally a Twitter thread. Not financial advice!
A thread on the Saturn Uranus square 2021–2023, about the economy, legacy markets, BTC.
This is the first time in BTC history this square is taking place. The last time we saw the same square was during the 2000 .com bubble. This already gives us an indication of what will happen to the general economy, as well as the legacy markets.
To add to this even further, the last time these two (Saturn and Uranus) were in a difficult aspect was during the 2008 financial crisis. Another bubble was formed which was popped. This time it was the opposition of the two that did it.
If we look even further in this current Uranus and Saturn cycle that started in 1988 with the conjunction in Sagittarius, it truly started with a bang. 1987 Black Monday stock market crash was the event we can find some correlations within today’s climate. Going back in history even more than that we can also see similarities during the square that took place from 1974–1978. In the 694 days between 11 January 1973 and 6 December 1974, the New York Stock Exchange’s Dow Jones Industrial Average benchmark suffered the seventh-worst bear market in its history, losing over 45% of its value. The UK market lost over 73% of it’s value. Important to mention that after the crashes the markets recovered to new highs.
These examples should give an extremely high probability for another economic downturn, a crash of the markets, etc. I’m restraining myself from saying inevitable, but I believe there is at least a 0.1 % chance that it might play out differently. Highly unlikely though. I like to make these decisions from evidence and there’s plenty of it from history that a correction is going to happen. If I was a betting man (and I am) high probability of this happening between the end of January 2021 and the end of April 2021.
But the problem is with BTC because we haven’t seen BTC in action during this square. We can get some indication from the fact that BTC was created during the last opposition of Uranus and Saturn but that’s about it. The popular thesis is that it’s a safe haven from inflation and people are running to it in times of trouble. Personally, don’t believe it yet. I will believe it when I see it. Worth a mention (and hard for me to admit) here that if the printing press stays hot, more likely that the prices will continue to rise. But even in that case, I see a crash before the continuation of the hyperinflation through limitless money printing. Until then it’s a matter of deciphering BTC’s personal chart and transits which takes time. In that way, we would be able to make more accurate predictions with more precise timeframes as well.
So far there has been a correlation between BTC and SP500 for example and the general stock market. If one goes down, the other one goes down as well. Will it continue? We don’t know, we will have to wait and see. I personally evaluate the probability of “one goes down and the other one as well” to be highly likely. More likely than the decoupling of the two assets.
But to say that it’s 100% happening is in my opinion comparable to sniffing Your own farts and thinking that they smell awesome…Both sides, the bulls, and the bears have to face their incompetence sooner or later. The markets always move up and down…
A huge point of this thread is to maintain emotional detachment when making financial decisions or trading. Even if the probability of something happening is high, it doesn’t necessarily mean it’s going to happen exactly how we think it’s going to happen. All we have are probabilities.
In this ego-driven and alpha male type of space where banging on Your chest and yelling out numbers is getting attention/followers etc. it is becoming increasingly important to be able to control (feel) Your emotions when making decisions. As well as changing direction when something doesn’t go according to the plan. A reminder for me for this increasingly volatile and difficult period we are entering.
Sources:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1973%E2%80%931974_stock_market_crash
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1973%E2%80%931975_recession
My own brain.
Ian Altosaar
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